St. Mary’s College Professors Place Their Election Bets
Posted by St. Mary’s College of Maryland
Bay Leader
Photo by Mark Skipper
St. Mary’s City, MD — The 2012 elections will be tight according to faculty of the political science department at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, who are issuing their predictions for Nov. 6.
Regardless of whom they predict to win the presidency, faculty members project a narrower margin of victory for the winner than in the 2008 election. The House of Representatives will remain in Republican hands and the Senate will remain in Democratic hands, but narrowly, they predict. One faculty member foresees a 50-50 split in the Senate, in which case the vice president would deliver the tie-breaking vote.
See individual predictions and comments from faculty below:
Diana Boros, assistant professor
- President: Obama 288, Romney 250 (electoral votes)
- Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
- House: Republican majority
Michael Cain, professor
- President: Obama 277, Romney 261
- Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47
- House: Republicans 238, Democrats 197
Todd Eberly, assistant professor: “Prepare to relive Florida 2000, just not in Florida.” (Eberly provides further insight into his predictions on his blog, “The Free Stater.”)
- President: Romney 279, Obama 259
- Senate: Republicans 50, Democrats 50
- House: Republicans 234, Democrats 201
Matt Fehrs, assistant professor
- President: Obama 281, Romney 257
- Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
- House: Republican majority
Susan Grogan, professor
- President: Obama 323, Romney 215
- Senate: Democrats 52, Republican 48
- House: Republican majority
Walter Hill, professor: “I would not be surprised if Romney wins the popular vote and loses the Electoral College, but given the performance in the third debate, I now put Obama at 50.5% of the two party vote.”
- President: Obama 303, Romney 235
- Senate: Democratic majority
- House: Republicans 230, Democrats 205
Kate Martin, visiting assistant professor
- President: Obama 290, Romney 248
- Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
- House: Republican majority
Shan Sappleton, visiting assistant professor
- President: Obama 290, Romney 248
- Senate: Democrats 53, Republicans 47
- House: Republican majority
Sahar Shafqat, associate professor and chair: “This election will come down to Ohio, much as the 2004 election did.”
- President: Romney 270, Barack Obama 268
- Senate: Democrats 52, Republicans 48
- House: Republican majority
