Putin Draws Crowd to St. Mary’s College

Posted for The Patuxent Partnership

Interest in Russian president Vladimir Putin drew about 100 scholars, students and community members to the lecture “What’s next Mr. Putin?” hosted by The Patuxent Partnership and the Center for the Study of Democracy at St. Mary’s College of Maryland.  The turnout validates one of the favored theories regarding the reasons for Mr. Putin’s gambits into Crimea, Ukraine, and now Syria: Russia is once again a player.

Professor Angela Stent, a foreign policy expert specializing in U.S. and European relations with Russia and Russian foreign policy, was invited to speak and offer her perspective on U.S. and Russian relations and Russia’s expansionist foreign policy.

Prof. Stent started by wishing President Putin a happy 63^rd birthday and followed with “Putin is back on the world stage.” illustrating her statement with examples of Mr. Putin’s brinkmanship speeches at the United Nations and Russia’s launch of bombing sorties into Syria.

The relationship between the U.S. and Russia has declined since 2013 for three reasons, according to Prof. Stent. First is Russia’s harboring of Edward Snowden, who continues to release classified data he took from the U.S. National Security Agency. That was followed by Russia’s annexation of Crimea and ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Most recently, Russia refused to join a U.S.-led coalition against Islamic State fighters in Syria, while Mr. Putin has launched a Russian initiative into Syria. Russia claims to be helping to defeat the Islamic State, but reports continue to grow that Russia is also helping the Syrian president squash a long ongoing civil war.

In response to questioning about how the Russian middle class was viewing Mr.  Putin’s military tactics, Prof. Stent said some families, those with means, left for the U.S. and Europe. Others have “made their peace” and accepted that, materially, their lives are better. More disturbing, she said, was when Crimea was annexed, some of the middle class “jumped on the bandwagon.”

Prof. Stent does not foresee a change in these patterns. “Young people believe the state television. This is unlike their parents, who were skeptical of the state-sponsored news.” Adding to both the acceptance of the state policy-line and a growing distrust of the U.S., students are taught in school that the collapse of the USSR was because the U.S. had weakened the Soviet Union — not that the USSR collapsed on its own.

There are also economic problems growing in Russia. While the middle class did recognize some rise in living standards in Mr. Putin’s early years in office,  from 2000 to 2008,  the advances are diminishing due to a lack of reforms. Furthermore, the weakening economy is now compounded by falling gas prices.

While Mr. Putin and President George Bush and later President George W. Bush strengthened the U.S. and Russia relationship, the Clinton years of promoting democracy went very poorly with Russia, Prof. Stent explained. By 2011 the relationship with then Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was not going well, nor did President Obama’s Russian reset. “Mistrust” is the single word that would describe the relationship today, she said.

Prof. Stent, cautioning her audience that Mr. Putin is not a good strategist, but a good tactician, still went on to describe Russia’s entry into Syria as part of a broader strategy involving the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East. There have been arms deals with Russia among Middle Eastern nations. And Russia has raised its profile in the region.

“We are at a difficult moment,” she said. “There is not a very good chance of repairing in the foreseeable future.”