March 29, 2024

Sequestration & DoD Budget Impacts Local Jobs

Posted for The Art Park
Bay Leader

 Daraius Irani of Towson University’s Regional Economic Studies Institute was in town last week to introduce himself at a public briefing and explain his contract with the newly formed Economic Development Commission.

The commission had requested he provide an economic study to better understand the impacts sequestration and the DoD budget draw down could have on the local economy.

Intentionally, Mr. Irani explained, the study did not include other factors affecting employment with the Patuxent River Naval Air Station. The commission sought to understand the severity of sequestration and the draw down, but, for example, changes to the mission at the base, which could have a significant impact on employment and  the local economy, were not part of this report.

Mr. Irani’s report showed the number of local jobs leveling through 2015. The historical forecasts for new jobs were much higher prior to sequestration and the draw down of the DoD budget. The revised forecast indicates a reduced rate of growth of jobs for the next 20 years, but not a reduction in the total number of jobs.

The bottoming out of the local economy happens in 2015, according to Mr. Irani’s PowerPoint presentation.

Whether the sequestration and the draw down of the military budget continues or not, there will still be fewer management jobs. Since these represent mid- to high-skill occupations with  higher disposable incomes, losses experienced at this level contribute to the additional loss of lower-waged service jobs.

Mr. Irani predicts that the climb out of the 2015 nadir will be slow and by 2030 will amount to significantly fewer jobs compared to what historical predictions indicate would have materialized without sequestration or a military draw down.

Engineering Services; Computer System Design and Related Services; Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting Services; and Scientific Research and Development Services were seen to gain throughout. However, their growth rates have already slowed as a result of government impacts.

Some defense contractors were skeptical, indicating losses in these latter areas would continue.

County Commissioner Todd Morgan suggested a mission-based assessment of jobs associated with NAS:Patuxent River might paint a gloomier picture than the moderate job losses indicated by the modeling Mr. Irani presented.

While this initial report did not encompass any other areas of the economy beyond NAS:Pax River, more in-depth and nuanced studies will be emerging over the next 16 months, Mr. Irani said.

The Economic Development Commission includes Richard A. Braam; Carlos Bravo; Wynne S. Briscoe; Daniel L. Carney; Laura E. Clarke; Philip H. Dorsey, III; Tracy Harris; Philbert L. Langley, Jr.; James K. Raley, Jr.; Thomas W. Sanders; William E. Scarafia; Michael Schroeder and Thomas B. Watts.

county jobs graphic - NS

 

 

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